The 2026 Aces Project: Unveiling the Elite Pitchers
As the 2026 baseball season approaches, the question on everyone's mind is: Who are the true aces of the diamond? The 2026 Aces Project, an annual endeavor by The Athletic, aims to answer this age-old query by surveying experts around the game. This year's panel, comprising 20 individuals with expertise in scouting, player development, and analytics, provided insights into the top pitchers, ranking them from No. 1 to No. 5.
The survey, filled out by each panelist, included 90 pitchers, with the top 50 determined by their FanGraphs wins above replacement (WAR) in 2024, along with 40 additional players deemed worthy of consideration. The grading system, ranging from No. 1 to No. 5, was used to assess each pitcher's current performance, with an asterisk indicating potential for future ace status.
The top 50 pitchers were categorized into five tiers, each representing a different level of excellence. Tier 1, the Inner Circle, comprised the unanimous No. 1s, while Tier 2, Aces, included pitchers trusted for the regular season and October alike. Tier 3, The Doorstep Knockers, featured pitchers who might one day call themselves aces, Tier 4, No. 2s and No. 3s, showcased pitchers with lower ceilings but elevated floors, and Tier 5, No. 4s and No. 5s, consisted of players talented enough for the majors but still a level below the elite.
One of the key findings of the survey was the impact of injuries on the rankings. Notable pitchers like Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, and Zack Wheeler were excluded due to major surgeries, and their potential returns in 2026 will be considered for next year's list.
The survey also highlighted the emergence of young pitchers like Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, who were ranked as the top two pitchers in the world for a brief interlude this spring. However, the rankings were not without controversy, with debates surrounding the placement of pitchers like Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and Justin Verlander, who were deemed 'just a guy' by some experts.
The survey also revealed the importance of velocity and command in determining a pitcher's ace status. Pitchers with fastballs in the mid-90s and the ability to locate their pitches consistently were favored, while those with command issues and slower velocities were ranked lower.
In conclusion, the 2026 Aces Project provides a comprehensive look at the current state of baseball's aces, with a focus on the impact of injuries, velocity, and command. The rankings, while subjective, offer valuable insights into the sport's elite pitchers and their potential for future success.
