Bold claim: Iran has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz to oil and gas shipments, using a mix of drone strikes and intimidation that has disrupted commercial shipping even as the United States intensifies attacks on Iran’s navy.
Over the past four days, at least four tankers were struck, and Lloyd’s List Intelligence reported an 80% drop in seaborne traffic by Sunday, with insurers pulling coverage and little sign of recovery by the next day.
On Monday, Brig Gen Ebrahim Jabbari, a senior adviser to Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commander, warned that any ship attempting to cross would be attacked and set ablaze.
Despite these threats, the latest at-sea incidents appeared to occur on Sunday, according to the UK’s Maritime Trading Organization. An unknown projectile exploded very close to a vessel 40 miles west of Sharjah in the UAE on March 1, but there were no serious casualties reported.
Iran’s ability to carry out further attacks may be more limited than it seems. The US Central Command (Centcom) has conducted a sustained campaign against Iran’s small navy and claimed to have sunk or crippled all 11 Iranian vessels operating in the Gulf of Oman east of the strait, including the Shahid Bagheri, a container ship converted to carry, launch, and recover drones and helicopters. Iran had touted this vessel as a mobile platform capable of projecting power, potentially staying at sea for up to 12 months with onboard facilities such as a hospital.
US military leadership described the initial strikes as Tomahawk cruise missile launches that targeted Iranian naval forces and expanded to southern Iran, with satellite imagery showing heavy damage at Bandar Abbas.
While Israel has focused on Tehran and regime sites, a major part of the US effort has been securing southern Iran’s maritime routes and airspace.
Centcom also indicated there was no sign of Iran turning to mining the shipping lanes with its small submarine fleet; details were limited, but Iran’s submarine fleet at Bandar Abbas was reportedly targeted.
As a result, tankers carrying oil, natural gas, and other fossil fuels have been cautious about transiting the Gulf, though some are weighing nighttime journeys with deactivated transponders and limited insurance—risks that may be taken to avoid the route entirely.
Traditionally, around one-fifth of the world’s crude oil passes through Hormuz, but regional reliance varies. North and South American nations import roughly 12.5% via the strait, whereas China relies on the route for about 45.7% of its oil, according to Kpler’s data.
Iran’s tactic appears to be shifting toward bombing port infrastructure and ships, with at least one major refinery hit. Satellite imagery indicated damage to Ras Tanura, Saudi Arabia’s largest refinery, which shut down after drones were intercepted and debris sparked a fire. Qatar’s state-owned energy company halted LNG production due to military actions, and a day later a fire broke out at Fujairah, UAE, following a drone attack in the port area—an important oil storage and trading hub.
As prices respond, Brent crude rose to about $83 per barrel, a roughly 15% increase from Friday. In parallel, discussions in Washington include proposals to assist regional oil-tanker insurance amid heightened tensions and ongoing conflict in the region.
Question for readers: If these disruptions persist, what do you think will be the long-term impact on global energy security and regional stability? Do you believe the international community should pursue a negotiated de-escalation, or is a hard stance necessary to deter further aggression? Your thoughts in the comments.
